Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Aho 53.8% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 61.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 56.2%
Neutral zone
Aho 54.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
McDavid
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
McDavid
Aho
Last 5: McDavid 3-2 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
McDavid
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
51.2% (785)
+0.4%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
63.8% (213)
-13.8%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
57.9% (57)
-21.5%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
McDavid shoots left. Aho is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
McDavid
Aho
Home
51.8% (415)
54.9% (548)
Away
50.4% (450)
53.3% (507)
By Period
McDavid
Aho
P1
47.5%
52.8%
P2
51.6%
58.9%
P3
55.5%
50.6%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 18:56 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 03:39 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:23 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 1 | 10:36 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |