Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). McDavid wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Aho 52.2% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 51.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 66.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 60.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
McDavid
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
6
(15 meetings)
9
6
McDavid
Aho
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
3
McDavid
Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
2
McDavid
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
1
McDavid
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
51.6% (819)
+2.7%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
58.4% (173)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
46.3% (67)
-13.0%
On power play, Aho has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
McDavid shoots left. Aho is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (674).
Home / Away
McDavid
Aho
Home
53.6% (507)
53.9% (568)
Away
53.8% (539)
50.7% (491)
By Period
McDavid
Aho
P1
52.6%
55.4%
P2
54.1%
51.2%
P3
54.9%
50.9%
OT
44.4%
28.6%
Final 5 min
52.2%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2022 | 3 | 13:45 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 3 | 07:47 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 3 | 04:14 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 2 | 19:11 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 2 | 10:31 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 2 | 07:27 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 2 | 04:26 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:48 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 01:08 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 15:17 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 05:52 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 02:22 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 13:04 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 01:22 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |