Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Aho 50.0% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 54.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 59.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 56.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 56.7%
56.7%
43.3%
McDavid
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
McDavid
Aho
Last 8: McDavid 2-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
McDavid
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
McDavid
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
49.9% (851)
-2.4%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
53.5% (144)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
43.3% (60)
+3.2%
On power play, Aho has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
McDavid
Aho
Home
50.2% (400)
53.2% (554)
Away
44.7% (365)
46.5% (501)
By Period
McDavid
Aho
P1
47.5%
49.1%
P2
48.6%
50.8%
P3
46.7%
49.7%
OT
33.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
51.3%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 08:07 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 03:26 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 12:06 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 18:43 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 10:27 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:29 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 08:31 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 00:50 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |