Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Lorentz 47.6% (+8.2%)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 54.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 59.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 52.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
McDavid
Lorentz
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
46.5% (101)
+7.8%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
33.3% (3)
+11.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
37.5% (8)
-4.2%
On power play, McDavid has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
McDavid shoots left. Lorentz is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (62).
Home / Away
McDavid
Lorentz
Home
53.6% (507)
49.1% (53)
Away
53.8% (539)
42.4% (59)
By Period
McDavid
Lorentz
P1
52.6%
48.6%
P2
54.1%
36.7%
P3
54.9%
57.7%
Final 5 min
52.2%
41.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.5%