Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Lorentz 46.6% (+11.3%)
Offensive zone
McDavid 56.7%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 52.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 56.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
McDavid
Lorentz
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
30.8% (26)
+16.9%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
57.1% (7)
-34.9%
On penalty kill, Lorentz has a +34.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Lorentz is 36.8% vs left-shot opponents (19).
Home / Away
McDavid
Lorentz
Home
47.3% (387)
35.0% (20)
Away
48.1% (389)
38.5% (13)
By Period
McDavid
Lorentz
P1
47.6%
38.5%
P2
50.0%
37.5%
P3
45.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
46.8%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
36.4%