Scouting Report
Steven Lorentz holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Lorentz 50.0% (-2.4%)
Offensive zone
McDavid 72.0%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 59.9%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 53.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
McDavid
Lorentz
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
52.2% (67)
-4.7%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
50.0% (2)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
42.9% (21)
+3.6%
On even strength, Lorentz has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Lorentz is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (55).
Home / Away
McDavid
Lorentz
Home
50.2% (400)
55.4% (65)
Away
44.7% (365)
36.0% (25)
By Period
McDavid
Lorentz
P1
47.5%
59.3%
P2
48.6%
47.1%
P3
46.7%
44.8%
Final 5 min
51.3%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.0%