Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Lorentz 49.4% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 62.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 56.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 56.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
McDavid
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
McDavid
Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
48.9% (135)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
50.0% (4)
-13.6%
On penalty kill, Lorentz has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
McDavid shoots left. Lorentz is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (97).
Home / Away
McDavid
Lorentz
Home
51.8% (415)
50.7% (75)
Away
50.4% (450)
46.9% (64)
By Period
McDavid
Lorentz
P1
47.5%
60.0%
P2
51.6%
46.3%
P3
55.5%
44.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 16:22 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |