Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +13.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Zegras 41.5% (+13.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 69.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 94.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 90.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 86.9%
86.9%
13.1%
McDavid
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
McDavid
Zegras
Last 5: McDavid 4-1 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Zegras
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
39.4% (510)
+14.9%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
47.1% (34)
-2.3%
On even strength, McDavid has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
McDavid shoots left. Zegras is 37.7% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
McDavid
Zegras
Home
53.6% (507)
42.3% (272)
Away
53.8% (539)
37.5% (272)
By Period
McDavid
Zegras
P1
52.6%
37.6%
P2
54.1%
41.5%
P3
54.9%
40.8%
OT
44.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.2%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
39.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 04:15 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 2 | 11:25 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 04:21 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 18:46 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 14:06 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |