Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +17.3% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Zegras 35.4% (+17.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 70.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 55.5%
Neutral zone
Zegras 55.2%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
McDavid
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
McDavid
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
McDavid
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
29.6% (230)
+17.9%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
32.1% (56)
+16.5%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
100.0% (1)
-53.5%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +53.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Zegras is 30.7% vs left-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
McDavid
Zegras
Home
50.2% (400)
30.6% (147)
Away
44.7% (365)
30.0% (140)
By Period
McDavid
Zegras
P1
47.5%
33.0%
P2
48.6%
31.7%
P3
46.7%
25.6%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.3%
29.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
30.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 07:16 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |