Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Zegras 42.6% (+10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 65.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 88.2%
Neutral zone
McDavid 83.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 83.3%
83.3%
16.7%
McDavid
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
McDavid
Zegras
Last 6: McDavid 4-2 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
2
McDavid
Zegras
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
41.1% (559)
+10.4%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
50.0% (12)
+13.9%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
50.0% (2)
+1.2%
On power play, McDavid has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
McDavid shoots left. Zegras is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Home / Away
McDavid
Zegras
Home
50.7% (513)
45.7% (247)
Away
53.2% (498)
38.0% (326)
By Period
McDavid
Zegras
P1
52.3%
45.5%
P2
51.6%
36.8%
P3
51.7%
41.1%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.5%
37.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 06:35 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 06:08 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 09:12 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |