Connor McDavid vs William Karlsson
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Karlsson 57.1% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 67.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 68.0%
Neutral zone
McDavid 67.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 67.6%
67.6%
32.4%
McDavid
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
McDavid
Karlsson
Last 6: McDavid 2-4 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Karlsson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
2
McDavid
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
58.6% (597)
-10.9%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
57.9% (57)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
51.9% (52)
-29.7%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +29.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Karlsson is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Home / Away
McDavid
Karlsson
Home
47.3% (387)
59.6% (344)
Away
48.1% (389)
56.6% (362)
By Period
McDavid
Karlsson
P1
47.6%
53.1%
P2
50.0%
62.1%
P3
45.0%
60.1%
Final 5 min
46.8%
61.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 17:24 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 16:42 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 06:13 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 01:31 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 06:00 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 19:06 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |