Connor McDavid vs William Karlsson
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Karlsson 54.7% (-10.0%)
Offensive zone
McDavid 62.8%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 65.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 55.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
McDavid
Karlsson
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
58.5% (135)
-11.0%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
80.0% (5)
-31.4%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
44.4% (18)
+2.1%
On power play, Karlsson has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Karlsson is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
McDavid
Karlsson
Home
50.2% (400)
63.7% (91)
Away
44.7% (365)
49.3% (67)
By Period
McDavid
Karlsson
P1
47.5%
54.4%
P2
48.6%
66.7%
P3
46.7%
51.9%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
57.6%