Connor McMichael vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +17.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McMichael wins 39.3% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 44.0% vs Pageau 58.9% (-17.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 79.4%
Defensive zone
McMichael 76.9%
Neutral zone
McMichael 84.0%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
McMichael
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
McMichael
Pageau
Last 8: McMichael 2-6 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McMichael
Pageau
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
3
McMichael
Pageau
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
2
McMichael
Pageau
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (396)
59.5% (676)
-17.1%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
67.6% (34)
-18.5%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (94)
60.1% (213)
-18.6%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. McMichael is 39.3% vs right-shot opponents (183).
McMichael shoots left. Pageau is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (680).
Home / Away
McMichael
Pageau
Home
43.3% (293)
58.2% (364)
Away
42.5% (252)
61.0% (559)
By Period
McMichael
Pageau
P1
46.8%
54.4%
P2
41.2%
62.3%
P3
41.6%
62.0%
Final 5 min
44.0%
63.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
40.0%▼
45.5%
42.9%
Pageau
58.0%▼
59.5%
59.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 14:58 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 14:13 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 01:38 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 18:50 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:36 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 02:34 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 01:24 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:14 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |