Connor McMichael vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +17.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McMichael wins 39.3% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) McMichael 44.0% vs Pageau 58.9% (-17.0%)
H2H factor Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone McMichael 79.4%
Defensive zone McMichael 76.9%
Neutral zone McMichael 84.0%
Result Connor McMichael favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
McMichael Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
2 - 6 (8 meetings)
2
6
McMichael Pageau
Last 8: McMichael 2-6 Pageau

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McMichael Pageau
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
3
McMichael Pageau
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
2
McMichael Pageau
2 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
McMichael
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (396)
59.5% (676)
-17.1%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
67.6% (34)
-18.5%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (94)
60.1% (213)
-18.6%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +18.6% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Pageau shoots right. McMichael is 39.3% vs right-shot opponents (183).
McMichael shoots left. Pageau is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (680).
Home / Away
McMichael
Pageau
Home
43.3% (293)
58.2% (364)
Away
42.5% (252)
61.0% (559)
By Period
McMichael
Pageau
P1
46.8%
54.4%
P2
41.2%
62.3%
P3
41.6%
62.0%
Final 5 min
44.0%
63.2%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
40.0%
45.5%
42.9%
Pageau
58.0%
59.5%
59.9%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Oct 31, 2025 2 14:58 Neutral Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Oct 31, 2025 2 14:13 Offensive Connor McMichael
Oct 31, 2025 2 01:38 Neutral Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Oct 31, 2025 1 18:50 Offensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Oct 31, 2025 1 11:36 Defensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Oct 31, 2025 1 02:34 Defensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Oct 31, 2025 1 01:24 Defensive Connor McMichael
Oct 11, 2025 2 09:14 Defensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau