Connor McMichael vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 35.2% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.2% vs Pageau 55.0% (-13.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 86.0%
Defensive zone
McMichael 67.0%
Neutral zone
McMichael 82.7%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 77.6%
77.6%
22.4%
McMichael
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
McMichael
Pageau
Last 8: McMichael 2-6 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McMichael
Pageau
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
3
McMichael
Pageau
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
2
McMichael
Pageau
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
43.4% (761)
57.1% (905)
-13.7%
Power Play
40.7% (59)
55.2% (116)
-14.5%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (52)
48.0% (204)
-17.2%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. McMichael is 35.2% vs right-shot opponents (281).
McMichael shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Home / Away
McMichael
Pageau
Home
42.1% (444)
57.0% (618)
Away
42.8% (428)
53.9% (607)
By Period
McMichael
Pageau
P1
42.5%
54.4%
P2
41.9%
61.0%
P3
42.5%
51.0%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.7%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.4%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 18:13 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 12:20 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 00:37 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 12:03 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 18:32 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 17:45 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 17:33 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 01:22 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |