Connor McMichael vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). McMichael wins 38.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.3% vs Pageau 54.8% (-11.9%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 14-9 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
McMichael 80.3%
Defensive zone
McMichael 77.1%
Neutral zone
McMichael 86.0%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 80.8%
80.8%
19.2%
McMichael
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
14
(23 meetings)
9
14
McMichael
Pageau
Last 10: McMichael 2-8 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
4
3
McMichael
Pageau
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
7
McMichael
Pageau
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
4
McMichael
Pageau
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (1,574)
55.7% (9,486)
-12.6%
Power Play
46.0% (139)
57.0% (1,002)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
38.3% (167)
49.6% (2,069)
-11.3%
On even strength, Pageau has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. McMichael is 38.4% vs right-shot opponents (628).
McMichael shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,837).
Home / Away
McMichael
Pageau
Home
42.6% (976)
56.3% (6,214)
Away
43.3% (904)
53.4% (6,343)
By Period
McMichael
Pageau
P1
43.3%
54.6%
P2
43.2%
56.3%
P3
41.9%
53.5%
OT
75.0%
54.4%
Final 5 min
42.8%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.9%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 14:58 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 14:13 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 01:38 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 18:50 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:36 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 02:34 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 01:24 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:14 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 18:13 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 12:20 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 00:37 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 12:03 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 18:32 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 17:45 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 17:33 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 01:22 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 11:32 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 11:35 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 05:13 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 05:07 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |