Connor McMichael vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jesperi Kotkaniemi holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. McMichael wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Kotkaniemi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.8% vs Kotkaniemi 48.6% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 71.9%
Defensive zone
McMichael 69.7%
Neutral zone
McMichael 54.3%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 58.8%
41.2%
58.8%
McMichael
Kotkaniemi
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
McMichael
Kotkaniemi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
0
1
McMichael
Kotkaniemi
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McMichael
1
0
McMichael
Kotkaniemi
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (399)
47.3% (207)
-4.9%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
100.0% (3)
-50.9%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (96)
33.3% (3)
+7.3%
On power play, Kotkaniemi has a +50.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. McMichael is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (367).
McMichael shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (116).
Home / Away
McMichael
Kotkaniemi
Home
43.0% (298)
46.5% (129)
Away
42.5% (252)
50.0% (84)
By Period
McMichael
Kotkaniemi
P1
46.5%
51.3%
P2
41.1%
46.1%
P3
41.3%
45.9%
Final 5 min
44.0%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.7%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 04:19 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 05:42 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |