Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 44.8% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 44.0% vs Paul 53.6% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 63.6%
Defensive zone
McMichael 65.8%
Neutral zone
McMichael 66.2%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 65.6%
65.6%
34.4%
McMichael
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
McMichael
Paul
Last 6: McMichael 2-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
1
0
McMichael
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
McMichael
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
McMichael
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (396)
53.8% (318)
-11.4%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
61.4% (57)
-12.3%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (94)
50.0% (32)
-8.5%
On power play, Paul has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McMichael is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (362).
McMichael shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (297).
Home / Away
McMichael
Paul
Home
43.3% (293)
54.6% (183)
Away
42.5% (252)
54.5% (224)
By Period
McMichael
Paul
P1
46.8%
57.0%
P2
41.2%
56.2%
P3
41.6%
51.7%
Final 5 min
44.0%
60.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
40.0%▼
45.5%
42.9%
Paul
58.0%▲
54.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:46 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 16:56 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:56 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 05:24 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 05:21 | Neutral | Nick Paul |