Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McMichael on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.2% vs Paul 53.9% (-11.9%)
H2H factor
McMichael leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 88.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 83.8%
Neutral zone
Paul 80.3%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 82.7%
17.3%
82.7%
McMichael
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
McMichael
Paul
Last 10: McMichael 7-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
McMichael
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
3
0
McMichael
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McMichael
4
2
McMichael
Paul
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
43.4% (761)
53.1% (710)
-9.7%
Power Play
40.7% (59)
57.3% (199)
-16.6%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (52)
58.0% (69)
-27.2%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +27.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McMichael is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (591).
McMichael shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
McMichael
Paul
Home
42.1% (444)
56.0% (466)
Away
42.8% (428)
52.7% (512)
By Period
McMichael
Paul
P1
42.5%
57.2%
P2
41.9%
54.9%
P3
42.5%
51.5%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
39.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.4%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 15:22 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 18:30 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 04:17 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 14:02 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 08:21 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 12:26 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |