Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. McMichael wins 43.5% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 44.5% vs Paul 50.4% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 58.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 81.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 77.5%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 66.9%
33.1%
66.9%
McMichael
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
McMichael
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
1
0
McMichael
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
McMichael
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McMichael
1
0
McMichael
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (339)
53.0% (644)
-9.9%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
37.5% (24)
+12.5%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
42.9% (177)
-42.9%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +42.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McMichael is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (223).
McMichael shoots left. Paul is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
McMichael
Paul
Home
42.7% (178)
52.5% (516)
Away
43.1% (167)
47.1% (329)
By Period
McMichael
Paul
P1
40.7%
47.6%
P2
50.0%
48.4%
P3
36.9%
54.5%
Final 5 min
43.8%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2021 | 3 | 16:30 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 19:38 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 00:06 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |