Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.8% vs Paul 53.3% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 61.3%
Defensive zone
McMichael 64.0%
Neutral zone
McMichael 65.2%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 63.9%
63.9%
36.1%
McMichael
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
McMichael
Paul
Last 6: McMichael 2-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
1
0
McMichael
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
McMichael
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
McMichael
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (399)
53.2% (327)
-10.8%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
61.4% (57)
-12.3%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (96)
50.0% (32)
-9.4%
On power play, Paul has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McMichael is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (367).
McMichael shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
McMichael
Paul
Home
43.0% (298)
54.6% (183)
Away
42.5% (252)
53.6% (233)
By Period
McMichael
Paul
P1
46.5%
56.3%
P2
41.1%
54.8%
P3
41.3%
52.4%
Final 5 min
44.0%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.7%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:46 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 16:56 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:56 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 05:24 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 05:21 | Neutral | Nick Paul |