Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. McMichael wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.8% vs Steel 50.6% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 69.6%
Defensive zone
Steel 59.6%
Neutral zone
Steel 66.5%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 64.2%
35.8%
64.2%
McMichael
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
McMichael
Steel
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
McMichael
Steel
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McMichael
2
0
McMichael
Steel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (399)
52.5% (200)
-10.1%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
71.4% (7)
-22.3%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (96)
40.0% (45)
+0.6%
On power play, Steel has a +22.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. McMichael is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (367).
McMichael shoots left. Steel is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
McMichael
Steel
Home
43.0% (298)
49.5% (109)
Away
42.5% (252)
51.7% (143)
By Period
McMichael
Steel
P1
46.5%
49.5%
P2
41.1%
47.5%
P3
41.3%
56.6%
Final 5 min
44.0%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.7%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:17 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 1 | 03:06 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 15:58 | Defensive | Sam Steel |