Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McMichael on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.3% vs Steel 50.2% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 54.0%
Defensive zone
Steel 52.7%
Neutral zone
Steel 56.9%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
McMichael
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
McMichael
Steel
Last 8: McMichael 4-4 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
McMichael
Steel
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
2
1
McMichael
Steel
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McMichael
Steel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (1,574)
50.6% (2,876)
-7.5%
Power Play
46.0% (139)
62.6% (179)
-16.6%
Penalty Kill
38.3% (167)
37.4% (254)
+0.9%
On power play, Steel has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. McMichael is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
McMichael shoots left. Steel is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,072).
Home / Away
McMichael
Steel
Home
42.6% (976)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
43.3% (904)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
McMichael
Steel
P1
43.3%
51.9%
P2
43.2%
49.5%
P3
41.9%
49.6%
OT
75.0%
41.9%
Final 5 min
42.8%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.9%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:17 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 1 | 03:06 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 15:58 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 2 | 18:43 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 2 | 18:27 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 3 | 04:41 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 2 | 16:01 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 2 | 03:46 | Neutral | Sam Steel |