Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). McMichael wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.2% vs Monahan 54.5% (-12.5%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
McMichael 89.8%
Defensive zone
McMichael 86.5%
Neutral zone
McMichael 86.6%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 87.8%
87.8%
12.2%
McMichael
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
McMichael
Monahan
Last 10: McMichael 3-7 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
5
McMichael
Monahan
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
McMichael
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
3
McMichael
Monahan
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
43.4% (761)
57.1% (871)
-13.7%
Power Play
40.7% (59)
53.1% (262)
-12.4%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (52)
44.6% (139)
-13.8%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. McMichael is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (591).
McMichael shoots left. Monahan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
McMichael
Monahan
Home
42.1% (444)
55.3% (644)
Away
42.8% (428)
54.5% (628)
By Period
McMichael
Monahan
P1
42.5%
53.9%
P2
41.9%
55.3%
P3
42.5%
54.4%
OT
100.0%
76.5%
Final 5 min
39.7%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.4%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 15:27 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 10:52 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 14:09 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 3 | 18:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 3 | 17:15 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 1 | 07:42 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 1 | 07:20 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 1 | 04:06 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 1 | 03:53 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:18 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:11 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |