Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). McMichael wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.8% vs Monahan 52.8% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McMichael 65.1%
Defensive zone
McMichael 67.7%
Neutral zone
McMichael 66.6%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 65.7%
65.7%
34.3%
McMichael
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
McMichael
Monahan
Last 10: McMichael 4-6 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
5
McMichael
Monahan
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
McMichael
Monahan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McMichael
2
1
McMichael
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (399)
53.2% (823)
-10.8%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
55.3% (159)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (96)
48.4% (95)
-7.8%
On even strength, Monahan has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. McMichael is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (367).
McMichael shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Home / Away
McMichael
Monahan
Home
43.0% (298)
54.6% (529)
Away
42.5% (252)
51.6% (548)
By Period
McMichael
Monahan
P1
46.5%
49.0%
P2
41.1%
55.4%
P3
41.3%
53.6%
Final 5 min
44.0%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.7%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:59 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 13:28 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 01:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 12:55 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 06:05 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 02:33 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 10:47 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 19:13 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 04:15 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 01:03 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |