Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +16.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Zary wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zary 46.9% vs Sturm 59.0% (-16.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zary 87.7%
Defensive zone
Zary 67.1%
Neutral zone
Zary 77.6%
Result
Connor Zary favored at 73.0%
73.0%
27.0%
Zary
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Zary
Sturm
Last 7: Zary 1-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Zary
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
5
Zary
Sturm
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zary
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (106)
60.6% (708)
-15.3%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
61.1% (18)
-61.1%
On power play, Sturm has a +61.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Zary is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (77).
Zary shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Home / Away
Zary
Sturm
Home
41.9% (62)
61.6% (451)
Away
46.8% (47)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Zary
Sturm
P1
42.9%
55.9%
P2
42.5%
58.9%
P3
47.1%
64.6%
Final 5 min
16.7%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zary
50.0%▲
46.0%
44.0%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 19:28 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 15:21 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 08:00 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 04:29 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 1 | 16:03 | Offensive | Connor Zary |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 14:00 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 12:12 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |