Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +15.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Zary wins 41.0% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zary 42.6% vs Sturm 56.1% (-15.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zary 92.4%
Defensive zone
Zary 68.5%
Neutral zone
Zary 86.4%
Result
Connor Zary favored at 75.3%
75.3%
24.7%
Zary
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Zary
Sturm
Last 7: Zary 1-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Zary
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
5
Zary
Sturm
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zary
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (447)
57.1% (2,719)
-15.3%
Power Play
36.2% (58)
61.3% (62)
-25.1%
On power play, Sturm has a +25.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Zary is 41.0% vs left-shot opponents (290).
Zary shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Zary
Sturm
Home
41.3% (293)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
41.0% (212)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Zary
Sturm
P1
40.4%
56.5%
P2
38.6%
54.9%
P3
45.2%
57.4%
OT
0.0%
60.6%
Final 5 min
34.6%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zary
50.0%▲
46.0%
41.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 19:28 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 15:21 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 08:00 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 04:29 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 1 | 16:03 | Offensive | Connor Zary |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 14:00 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 12:12 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |