Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 51.1% vs Larkin 54.1% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 80.3%
Defensive zone
Lazar 60.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 59.6%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Lazar
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Lazar
Larkin
Last 5: Lazar 4-1 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Lazar
Larkin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
4
0
Lazar
Larkin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (242)
53.6% (886)
-0.7%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
59.3% (317)
+40.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (27)
48.7% (152)
-15.4%
On power play, Lazar has a +40.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Lazar is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (202).
Lazar shoots right. Larkin is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
Lazar
Larkin
Home
57.1% (119)
56.6% (700)
Away
47.1% (153)
52.1% (655)
By Period
Lazar
Larkin
P1
53.1%
55.4%
P2
52.2%
54.7%
P3
48.8%
52.7%
Final 5 min
42.0%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
51.5%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 07:27 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 14:55 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 03:09 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 09:31 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 03:18 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |