Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lazar wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 58.1% vs Larkin 52.4% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lazar 68.2%
Defensive zone
Lazar 95.6%
Neutral zone
Lazar 80.0%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 95.6%
95.6%
4.4%
Lazar
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Lazar
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
3
0
Lazar
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
63.8% (174)
51.7% (878)
+12.1%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
58.5% (246)
-58.5%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (71)
48.2% (166)
+8.1%
On power play, Larkin has a +58.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Lazar is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (198).
Lazar shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Home / Away
Lazar
Larkin
Home
63.3% (128)
52.4% (647)
Away
59.3% (118)
52.7% (643)
By Period
Lazar
Larkin
P1
64.6%
52.2%
P2
60.5%
53.1%
P3
59.0%
51.7%
Final 5 min
68.4%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
61.4%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:07 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:20 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 17:42 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |