Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +16.5% FO% edge overall. Lazar wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 58.1% vs Cates 45.5% (+16.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lazar 54.2%
Defensive zone
Lazar 92.3%
Neutral zone
Lazar 73.1%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 92.3%
92.3%
7.7%
Lazar
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Lazar
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
1
0
Lazar
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
63.8% (174)
45.4% (712)
+18.4%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
42.2% (102)
-42.2%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (71)
44.7% (47)
+11.6%
On power play, Cates has a +42.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Lazar is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (198).
Lazar shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Lazar
Cates
Home
63.3% (128)
46.3% (423)
Away
59.3% (118)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Lazar
Cates
P1
64.6%
46.3%
P2
60.5%
47.1%
P3
59.0%
42.1%
Final 5 min
68.4%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
61.4%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2025 | 3 | 14:25 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |