Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 49.2% vs Cates 43.2% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Lazar leads 11-2 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Lazar 85.0%
Defensive zone
Lazar 92.9%
Neutral zone
Lazar 86.5%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 88.6%
88.6%
11.4%
Lazar
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
2
(13 meetings)
11
2
Lazar
Cates
Last 10: Lazar 10-0 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
1
Lazar
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
5
0
Lazar
Cates
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
4
1
Lazar
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (2,658)
44.1% (2,742)
+6.1%
Power Play
52.3% (65)
43.0% (242)
+9.3%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (415)
34.9% (373)
+7.0%
On power play, Lazar has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Lazar is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,281).
Lazar shoots right. Cates is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,073).
Home / Away
Lazar
Cates
Home
50.1% (1,542)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
48.2% (1,596)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Lazar
Cates
P1
48.9%
44.5%
P2
48.9%
43.5%
P3
49.5%
41.2%
OT
56.5%
29.4%
Final 5 min
49.9%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
49.1%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2025 | 3 | 14:25 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:54 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:42 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 06:08 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 13:52 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 13:42 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 13:35 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 08:40 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:29 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 19:58 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:28 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 02:17 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 05:57 | Offensive | Noah Cates |