Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Vatrano shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 45.3% vs Vatrano 48.7% (+1.2%)
Offensive zone
Mercer 59.5%
Defensive zone
Mercer 63.2%
Neutral zone
Mercer 55.1%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 59.3%
59.3%
40.7%
Mercer
Vatrano
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Vatrano
Edge
Even Strength
43.2% (148)
50.0% (14)
-6.8%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
0.0% (2)
+40.0%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
0.0% (1)
+28.6%
On power play, Mercer has a +40.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Vatrano shoots left. Mercer is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (122).
Mercer shoots right. Vatrano is 80.0% vs right-shot opponents (5).
Home / Away
Mercer
Vatrano
Home
39.0% (82)
37.5% (8)
Away
45.8% (83)
44.4% (9)
By Period
Mercer
Vatrano
P1
45.5%
28.6%
P2
44.0%
33.3%
P3
36.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
36.6%
25.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
42.4%
Vatrano
44.0%▲
37.5%
41.2%