Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Vatrano shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Vatrano 41.6% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Vatrano 56.4%
Defensive zone
Mercer 61.0%
Neutral zone
Mercer 54.8%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Mercer
Vatrano
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Mercer
Vatrano
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Vatrano
0
1
Mercer
Vatrano
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Vatrano
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
38.3% (209)
+0.8%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
29.4% (17)
+11.7%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
44.4% (18)
-4.4%
On power play, Mercer has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Vatrano shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Mercer shoots right. Vatrano is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Home / Away
Mercer
Vatrano
Home
40.0% (755)
37.1% (116)
Away
38.5% (792)
39.1% (128)
By Period
Mercer
Vatrano
P1
38.2%
37.8%
P2
39.2%
33.3%
P3
41.1%
43.0%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.6%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Vatrano
44.0%▲
37.5%
38.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2021 | 2 | 18:15 | Neutral | Frank Vatrano |