Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Vatrano shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 46.3% vs Vatrano 46.5% (+11.6%)
Offensive zone
Mercer 61.8%
Defensive zone
Mercer 55.3%
Neutral zone
Mercer 55.7%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Mercer
Vatrano
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Vatrano
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (241)
31.3% (16)
+12.3%
Penalty Kill
70.0% (10)
36.4% (11)
+33.6%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +33.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Vatrano shoots left. Mercer is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Mercer shoots right. Vatrano is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (10).
Home / Away
Mercer
Vatrano
Home
41.7% (120)
26.7% (15)
Away
47.6% (145)
41.7% (12)
By Period
Mercer
Vatrano
P1
44.6%
16.7%
P2
45.4%
20.0%
P3
45.2%
54.5%
Final 5 min
48.6%
25.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Vatrano
44.0%▲
37.5%
33.3%