Scouting Report
Jason Dickinson holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dickinson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Dickinson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 46.3% vs Dickinson 50.0% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 71.6%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 86.7%
Neutral zone
Dickinson 58.9%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 69.5%
30.5%
69.5%
Mercer
Dickinson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Mercer
Dickinson
Last 5: Mercer 3-2 Dickinson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Dickinson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
1
2
Mercer
Dickinson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Dickinson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Dickinson
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (241)
51.2% (912)
-7.6%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
63.8% (58)
-13.8%
Penalty Kill
70.0% (10)
42.9% (266)
+27.1%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +27.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dickinson shoots left. Mercer is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Mercer shoots right. Dickinson is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (429).
Home / Away
Mercer
Dickinson
Home
41.7% (120)
52.9% (664)
Away
47.6% (145)
46.7% (572)
By Period
Mercer
Dickinson
P1
44.6%
49.0%
P2
45.4%
48.3%
P3
45.2%
52.5%
OT
0.0%
61.5%
Final 5 min
48.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2023 | 3 | 05:16 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 5, 2023 | 3 | 00:37 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 5, 2023 | 2 | 15:41 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 5, 2023 | 2 | 15:33 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 5, 2023 | 2 | 03:20 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |