Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 34.9% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 45.3% vs Kapanen 44.7% (+4.4%)
Offensive zone
Mercer 57.9%
Defensive zone
Mercer 54.3%
Neutral zone
Mercer 53.1%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
Mercer
Kapanen
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
43.2% (148)
39.1% (69)
+4.1%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
0.0% (2)
+40.0%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
37.5% (8)
-8.9%
On power play, Mercer has a +40.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Mercer is 34.9% vs right-shot opponents (43).
Mercer shoots right. Kapanen is 31.6% vs right-shot opponents (19).
Home / Away
Mercer
Kapanen
Home
39.0% (82)
47.4% (38)
Away
45.8% (83)
29.3% (41)
By Period
Mercer
Kapanen
P1
45.5%
38.7%
P2
44.0%
31.0%
P3
36.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
36.6%
36.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
42.4%
Kapanen
46.0%▲
39.0%
38.0%