Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 46.3% vs Kapanen 45.7% (+10.7%)
Offensive zone
Mercer 53.8%
Defensive zone
Mercer 56.4%
Neutral zone
Mercer 54.8%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Mercer
Kapanen
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (241)
34.4% (32)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
70.0% (10)
33.3% (6)
+36.7%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +36.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Mercer is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (64).
Mercer shoots right. Kapanen is 16.7% vs right-shot opponents (12).
Home / Away
Mercer
Kapanen
Home
41.7% (120)
33.3% (21)
Away
47.6% (145)
35.3% (17)
By Period
Mercer
Kapanen
P1
44.6%
29.4%
P2
45.4%
45.5%
P3
45.2%
30.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Kapanen
46.0%▲
39.0%
34.2%