Scouting Report
Nazem Kadri holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kadri on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Kadri shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 45.3% vs Kadri 47.7% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 52.2%
Defensive zone
Mercer 60.8%
Neutral zone
Mercer 51.0%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Mercer
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Mercer
Kadri
Last 7: Mercer 3-4 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Kadri
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
1
2
Mercer
Kadri
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Kadri
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
43.2% (148)
46.2% (1,005)
-3.0%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
57.3% (199)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
26.7% (30)
+1.9%
On power play, Kadri has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. Mercer is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (122).
Mercer shoots right. Kadri is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Mercer
Kadri
Home
39.0% (82)
47.4% (641)
Away
45.8% (83)
47.6% (593)
By Period
Mercer
Kadri
P1
45.5%
46.9%
P2
44.0%
49.5%
P3
36.7%
46.2%
Final 5 min
36.6%
46.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
42.4%
Kadri
48.0%▼
49.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 05:22 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 18:43 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 16:52 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 08:02 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 07:55 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 07:50 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 04:27 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |