Scouting Report
Nazem Kadri holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kadri on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Kadri shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Kadri 48.7% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Kadri leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Mercer 64.6%
Defensive zone
Mercer 69.0%
Neutral zone
Mercer 60.5%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 64.2%
64.2%
35.8%
Mercer
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
10
(16 meetings)
6
10
Mercer
Kadri
Last 10: Mercer 3-7 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
4
2
Mercer
Kadri
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
1
3
Mercer
Kadri
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kadri
1
5
Mercer
Kadri
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
48.2% (12,510)
-9.1%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
53.0% (1,892)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
41.0% (293)
-1.0%
On power play, Kadri has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Mercer shoots right. Kadri is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (5,319).
Home / Away
Mercer
Kadri
Home
40.0% (755)
49.1% (7,467)
Away
38.5% (792)
48.1% (7,231)
By Period
Mercer
Kadri
P1
38.2%
49.2%
P2
39.2%
48.8%
P3
41.1%
48.0%
OT
0.0%
49.0%
Final 5 min
39.6%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 11:58 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 04:22 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:45 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:43 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 2 | 01:16 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 1 | 01:59 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 05:22 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 18:43 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 16:52 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 08:02 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 07:55 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 07:50 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 04:27 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 14:18 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 11:29 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 04:33 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |