Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +17.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Mercer wins 37.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 37.5% vs Johansen 52.4% (-17.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 77.0%
Defensive zone
Mercer 77.2%
Neutral zone
Mercer 76.0%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 76.2%
76.2%
23.8%
Mercer
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Mercer
Johansen
Last 5: Mercer 1-4 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Mercer
Johansen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
3
Mercer
Johansen
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
35.4% (548)
49.4% (1,010)
-14.0%
Power Play
42.9% (35)
62.3% (236)
-19.4%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (7)
67.2% (67)
-67.2%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +67.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Mercer is 37.2% vs right-shot opponents (183).
Mercer shoots right. Johansen is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (363).
Home / Away
Mercer
Johansen
Home
39.9% (283)
54.7% (655)
Away
31.3% (307)
50.6% (658)
By Period
Mercer
Johansen
P1
37.7%
52.2%
P2
32.1%
50.7%
P3
37.7%
54.8%
OT
0.0%
53.6%
Final 5 min
33.3%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
35.4%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2021 | 2 | 12:31 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 2 | 10:19 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 3 | 08:35 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 3 | 00:40 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 06:03 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |