Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 46.3% vs Johansen 52.8% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 51.4%
Defensive zone
Johansen 82.5%
Neutral zone
Johansen 55.4%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 63.1%
36.9%
63.1%
Mercer
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Mercer
Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Johansen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Johansen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Mercer
Johansen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (241)
51.9% (597)
-8.3%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
57.9% (133)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
70.0% (10)
54.3% (81)
+15.7%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Mercer is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (64).
Mercer shoots right. Johansen is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Home / Away
Mercer
Johansen
Home
41.7% (120)
55.8% (387)
Away
47.6% (145)
50.7% (424)
By Period
Mercer
Johansen
P1
44.6%
50.0%
P2
45.4%
56.2%
P3
45.2%
52.6%
OT
0.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2024 | 3 | 08:29 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 05:47 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 11:59 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |