Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +14.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Mercer wins 39.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Johansen 53.3% (-14.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 68.7%
Defensive zone
Mercer 63.6%
Neutral zone
Mercer 67.3%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 67.2%
67.2%
32.8%
Mercer
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Mercer
Johansen
Last 8: Mercer 3-5 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Johansen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Johansen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
4
Mercer
Johansen
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
53.1% (11,017)
-14.0%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
56.2% (2,163)
-15.1%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
50.5% (978)
-10.5%
On power play, Johansen has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Mercer is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (448).
Mercer shoots right. Johansen is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (4,371).
Home / Away
Mercer
Johansen
Home
40.0% (755)
55.0% (7,001)
Away
38.5% (792)
51.7% (7,158)
By Period
Mercer
Johansen
P1
38.2%
53.2%
P2
39.2%
53.9%
P3
41.1%
52.8%
OT
0.0%
58.2%
Final 5 min
39.6%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2024 | 3 | 08:29 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 05:47 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 11:59 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 2 | 12:31 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 2 | 10:19 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 3 | 08:35 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 3 | 00:40 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 06:03 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |