Scouting Report
Sam Gagner holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 37.2% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 37.5% vs Gagner 47.5% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 79.8%
Defensive zone
Gagner 61.0%
Neutral zone
Mercer 64.7%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 66.2%
66.2%
33.8%
Mercer
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Mercer
Gagner
Last 6: Mercer 2-4 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Mercer
Gagner
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
2
Mercer
Gagner
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
35.4% (548)
51.3% (158)
-15.9%
Power Play
42.9% (35)
66.7% (36)
-23.8%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (7)
33.6% (110)
-33.6%
On penalty kill, Gagner has a +33.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Mercer is 37.2% vs right-shot opponents (183).
Mercer shoots right. Gagner is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (64).
Home / Away
Mercer
Gagner
Home
39.9% (283)
53.2% (154)
Away
31.3% (307)
40.0% (150)
By Period
Mercer
Gagner
P1
37.7%
35.6%
P2
32.1%
52.7%
P3
37.7%
51.9%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
33.3%
34.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
35.4%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 09:00 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 3 | 19:58 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 3 | 11:36 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 2 | 17:06 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 2 | 12:37 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |