Scouting Report
Sam Gagner holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 39.7% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Gagner 46.0% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 59.8%
Defensive zone
Mercer 59.2%
Neutral zone
Mercer 63.9%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 59.6%
59.6%
40.4%
Mercer
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Mercer
Gagner
Last 6: Mercer 2-4 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Mercer
Gagner
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
2
Mercer
Gagner
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
45.4% (4,699)
-6.3%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
51.5% (928)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
35.0% (226)
+5.0%
On power play, Gagner has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Mercer is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (448).
Mercer shoots right. Gagner is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,684).
Home / Away
Mercer
Gagner
Home
40.0% (755)
48.7% (3,025)
Away
38.5% (792)
43.0% (2,843)
By Period
Mercer
Gagner
P1
38.2%
44.6%
P2
39.2%
46.1%
P3
41.1%
47.3%
OT
0.0%
42.0%
Final 5 min
39.6%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 09:00 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 3 | 19:58 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 3 | 11:36 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 2 | 17:06 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 2 | 12:37 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |