Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.8% vs Ryan 57.2% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 69.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 75.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 77.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 75.3%
75.3%
24.7%
Nelson
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Nelson
Ryan
Last 6: Nelson 1-5 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Ryan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
2
Nelson
Ryan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
3
Nelson
Ryan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (1,020)
59.1% (594)
-11.7%
Power Play
51.5% (163)
49.1% (55)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (63)
57.9% (107)
-15.0%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Nelson is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (425).
Nelson shoots left. Ryan is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (544).
Home / Away
Nelson
Ryan
Home
51.0% (641)
57.0% (398)
Away
44.1% (605)
59.5% (358)
By Period
Nelson
Ryan
P1
48.2%
56.2%
P2
48.1%
56.9%
P3
46.9%
61.1%
Final 5 min
44.6%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.7%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
58.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2019 | 3 | 08:56 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 3 | 08:44 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 2 | 09:48 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 1 | 02:35 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 20, 2019 | 3 | 18:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2019 | 1 | 08:33 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |