Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +14.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Toninato on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Toninato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.9% vs Toninato 44.5% (+14.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 67.9%
Defensive zone
Toninato 58.3%
Neutral zone
Ryan 51.8%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 59.4%
59.4%
40.6%
Ryan
Toninato
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Ryan
Toninato
Last 5: Ryan 2-3 Toninato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toninato
1
2
Ryan
Toninato
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toninato
0
1
Ryan
Toninato
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Toninato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Toninato
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (816)
44.0% (182)
+12.5%
Power Play
55.2% (105)
25.0% (4)
+30.2%
Penalty Kill
63.2% (19)
15.4% (13)
+47.8%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +47.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toninato shoots left. Ryan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (642).
Ryan shoots right. Toninato is 38.0% vs right-shot opponents (71).
Home / Away
Ryan
Toninato
Home
56.7% (466)
47.3% (91)
Away
56.3% (474)
37.0% (108)
By Period
Ryan
Toninato
P1
55.4%
38.0%
P2
58.1%
37.3%
P3
55.8%
49.3%
Final 5 min
55.6%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
56.5%
Toninato
46.0%▼
47.5%
41.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2018 | 3 | 13:25 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 10, 2018 | 3 | 13:17 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 10, 2018 | 3 | 09:07 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Feb 10, 2018 | 3 | 02:24 | Offensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Feb 10, 2018 | 3 | 02:21 | Offensive | Dominic Toninato |