Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Toninato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.9% vs Toninato 44.9% (+13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 58.1%
Defensive zone
Ryan 80.0%
Neutral zone
Ryan 79.7%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 79.7%
79.7%
20.3%
Ryan
Toninato
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Ryan
Toninato
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Toninato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Toninato
Edge
Even Strength
60.2% (387)
43.5% (184)
+16.7%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
50.0% (4)
-21.4%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (118)
29.4% (17)
+13.8%
On power play, Toninato has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toninato shoots left. Ryan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (370).
Ryan shoots right. Toninato is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (63).
Home / Away
Ryan
Toninato
Home
56.7% (254)
45.6% (114)
Away
55.0% (258)
38.5% (91)
By Period
Ryan
Toninato
P1
56.9%
37.3%
P2
51.7%
41.7%
P3
59.2%
48.6%
Final 5 min
53.6%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Toninato
46.0%▼
47.5%
42.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2022 | 2 | 13:26 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |