Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Toninato on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Toninato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Toninato 45.4% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toninato 52.1%
Defensive zone
Ryan 52.1%
Neutral zone
Ryan 56.8%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
Ryan
Toninato
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Ryan
Toninato
Last 7: Ryan 3-4 Toninato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toninato
1
3
Ryan
Toninato
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toninato
0
1
Ryan
Toninato
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
0
Ryan
Toninato
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Toninato
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
45.9% (778)
+10.7%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
47.6% (21)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
26.7% (45)
+21.1%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toninato shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Toninato is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Ryan
Toninato
Home
56.2% (2,559)
47.0% (413)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
42.9% (431)
By Period
Ryan
Toninato
P1
55.1%
40.8%
P2
54.7%
46.3%
P3
56.0%
47.5%
Final 5 min
52.5%
41.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Toninato
46.0%▼
47.5%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2022 | 2 | 13:26 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 1, 2020 | 2 | 05:29 | Offensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Feb 10, 2018 | 3 | 13:25 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 10, 2018 | 3 | 13:17 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 10, 2018 | 3 | 09:07 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Feb 10, 2018 | 3 | 02:24 | Offensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Feb 10, 2018 | 3 | 02:21 | Offensive | Dominic Toninato |