Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on neutral-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Ryan wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.9% vs Larkin 49.9% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Ryan leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Ryan 90.8%
Defensive zone
Ryan 71.6%
Neutral zone
Ryan 89.2%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 86.6%
86.6%
13.4%
Ryan
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Ryan
Larkin
Last 10: Ryan 8-2 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
0
Ryan
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
0
Ryan
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
5
3
Ryan
Larkin
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (816)
48.5% (1,057)
+8.0%
Power Play
55.2% (105)
61.4% (140)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
63.2% (19)
48.7% (117)
+14.5%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Ryan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (642).
Ryan shoots right. Larkin is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (503).
Home / Away
Ryan
Larkin
Home
56.7% (466)
51.4% (652)
Away
56.3% (474)
48.5% (662)
By Period
Ryan
Larkin
P1
55.4%
49.1%
P2
58.1%
52.0%
P3
55.8%
48.0%
OT
66.7%
52.6%
Final 5 min
55.6%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
56.5%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2018 | 2 | 15:55 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 24, 2018 | 1 | 18:10 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 24, 2018 | 1 | 05:02 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 2, 2018 | 1 | 17:14 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 2, 2018 | 1 | 15:02 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 3 | 05:50 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 11:03 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 05:44 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 02:18 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |