Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 50.0% vs Larkin 54.1% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 91.0%
Defensive zone
Ryan 54.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 67.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 59.8%
40.2%
59.8%
Ryan
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Ryan
Larkin
Last 8: Ryan 6-2 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Ryan
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
5
0
Ryan
Larkin
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (344)
53.6% (886)
-2.7%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
59.3% (317)
+15.7%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (86)
48.7% (152)
-3.4%
On power play, Ryan has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Ryan is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (336).
Ryan shoots right. Larkin is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
Ryan
Larkin
Home
53.7% (214)
56.6% (700)
Away
46.4% (220)
52.1% (655)
By Period
Ryan
Larkin
P1
45.0%
55.4%
P2
50.0%
54.7%
P3
54.6%
52.7%
Final 5 min
45.3%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
50.0%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2023 | 2 | 07:43 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 2 | 07:38 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 2 | 04:49 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 17:07 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 09:37 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 14:16 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 12:07 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 06:29 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |