Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.7% vs 55.4%). Look for Ryan on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs Larkin 55.0% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 84.5%
Defensive zone
Ryan 81.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 51.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Ryan
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Ryan
Larkin
Last 5: Ryan 4-1 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Ryan
Larkin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Larkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
0
Ryan
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (263)
55.9% (943)
+4.9%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
57.4% (244)
+42.6%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (145)
46.2% (106)
+0.0%
On power play, Ryan has a +42.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Ryan shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Home / Away
Ryan
Larkin
Home
56.7% (201)
56.0% (654)
Away
54.8% (208)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Ryan
Larkin
P1
56.7%
54.4%
P2
56.8%
55.9%
P3
53.7%
55.2%
Final 5 min
56.1%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 11:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 14:30 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:17 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 16:43 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |